Identity V Essence 2 Drop Rates: Mayfly Pity Guide (S40)

Official Drop Rates: The Numbers

Identity V Season 40 Essence 2 operates on a tiered probability system with transparent rates accessible through the essence preview interface.

S-Tier Mayfly Drop Rate

• Base rate: 0.5% per pull (1-in-200 chance)
• Single pull cost: 96 Inspirations
• Statistical expectation: 200 pulls at base rate (before pity)

Soft pity begins after 60 pulls, adding 0.5-1% to your drop rate with each subsequent pull.

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A-Tier and B-Tier Rates

• B-Tier: Guaranteed within 10-12 pulls
• A-Tier: 2.5% base rate, guaranteed at 60 pulls (5,760 Inspirations or ~$45)
• S-Tier: 0.5% base rate, guaranteed at 250 pulls

Duplicate Protection

Duplicates convert to Fragments:

• S-Tier duplicates: 2,000 Fragments
• A-Tier duplicates: 1,000 Fragments
• B-Tier duplicates: 76-200 Fragments

The Mayfly skin costs 12,888 Fragments for direct purchase.

Pity System Mechanics

Hard Pity: 250-Pull Guarantee

Hard pity activates at exactly 250 pulls, guaranteeing an S-Tier skin. Total cost: 24,000 Inspirations (~$350). This represents your absolute maximum spend.

Soft Pity: 60-Pull Acceleration

After 60 pulls without an S-Tier drop, your rate increases by 0.5-1% per pull:

• 62 pulls: 40% cumulative probability
• 85-95 pulls: Median drop range (50% of players)
• 100 pulls: 63% cumulative probability
• 150 pulls: 78% cumulative probability
• 200 pulls: 87% cumulative probability

Most players acquire Mayfly well before hard pity.

Pity Counter Carryover

Your pity counter carries over between all Season 40 essences. If you opened 30 essences in Essence 1 without an S-Tier, those 30 pulls count toward Essence 2 pity.

Important: Counter resets completely at Season 41. Complete pulls before season ends if you're close to a threshold.

Cost Breakdown

Inspiration Requirements

• 50 pulls: 4,800 Inspirations

• 100 pulls: 9,600 Inspirations
• 150 pulls: 14,400 Inspirations
• 200 pulls: 19,200 Inspirations
• 250 pulls (hard pity): 24,000 Inspirations

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Real Money Investment

Based on standard Echo pricing:

• A-Tier guarantee (60 pulls): ~$45
• Median S-Tier (85-95 pulls): $65-75
• 100-pull threshold (63% chance): $80-90
• Hard pity (250 pulls): ~$350

The November 20-27 login event grants 10 free pulls, reducing total cost by 960 Inspirations ($7-10).

Package Efficiency

Larger Echo packages offer 15-20% bonus Echoes compared to smaller purchases. For players committed to hard pity, buying larger packages upfront maximizes efficiency.

Probability Calculator

First 50 Pulls

40% cumulative probability at 4,800 Inspirations (~$40-50). This means 4 out of 10 players succeed here, while 6 need additional pulls.

100-Pull Threshold

63% cumulative probability at 9,600 Inspirations (~$80-90). You've crossed the more likely than not threshold, with soft pity active for 40 pulls.

Extended Ranges

• 150 pulls: 78% probability (14,400 Inspirations, ~$120-140)
• 200 pulls: 87% probability (19,200 Inspirations, ~$160-180)

Only 13% of players require the full 250-pull investment.

Expected Value

The median of 85-95 pulls represents realistic budget planning. Half of all players receive Mayfly before this range. This median cost of $65-75 is 20-25% of the maximum hard pity cost.

Season 40 Essence 2 Timeline

Availability dates vary by source. Some reports indicate November 27 to December 18, 2025, while others show a December 18, 2025 launch. Verify exact dates through official in-game announcements.

The essence remains available for 3-4 weeks, after which it becomes unavailable for direct purchase. The November 20-27 login event provides 10 free pulls.

First Officer Analysis

Competitive Viability

First Officer maintains a 65% win rate in competitive play. Key abilities:

• Poseidon Watch: 32m range, 10s duration, 10% movement speed boost
• Hypnosis: 32m range, 10s, 10% movement speed, 7-14% decoding boost
• Vanish Disguise: 10s duration, 20% decoding penalty, 3.8 m/s running speed

Character unlock cost: 3,568 Clues or 688 Echoes.

Mayfly Skin Value

The Mayfly skin features unique visual effects and animations. As an S-Tier limited skin, it carries exclusivity value that increases over time. However, it provides no gameplay advantages—value centers entirely on aesthetics and collection completion.

S-Tier skins can't be traded or sold, making them permanent account-bound items. Dedicated First Officer mains derive maximum value from exclusive cosmetics.

Budget Strategies

Free Resources

• November 20-27 login event: 10 free pulls (960 Inspirations value)
• Logic Path progression: 5-15 additional free pulls throughout season
• Daily/weekly quests: Accelerate Logic Path advancement

Exhaust free sources before purchasing Echoes. These can represent 15-20% of median acquisition cost.

Setting Limits

Establish a firm spending limit before opening essences. The median cost of $65-75 provides a realistic target, while $350 represents absolute maximum. Decide in advance whether you'll stop at specific thresholds or commit to hard pity.

Track pulls in a spreadsheet to monitor pity progress and prevent impulsive overspending.

Risk Management

At 100 pulls without Mayfly, you've spent ~$80-90 with 37% chance of needing more pulls. Continuing to 150 requires another $40-50 for 78% cumulative probability.

Risk-averse players may stop at 100 pulls. Risk-tolerant players with available funds might continue to hard pity. The optimal stopping point depends on your financial situation and how much you value the skin.

Never spend money you can't afford to lose on cosmetics.

Common Misconceptions

Myth: Multi-Pull Increases Odds

False. The 10-pull option provides no rate bonuses versus 10 individual pulls. Each pull operates as an independent probability event with identical odds. The only difference is convenience.

Myth: Time of Day Affects Rates

No evidence supports this. Drop rates remain constant 24/7, determined solely by base percentage and pity counter status. Players reporting better luck at certain times experience confirmation bias.

Myth: You're Due for Success

This is the gambler's fallacy. Each pull maintains the same base probability (0.5% plus soft pity bonuses) regardless of previous results. Your 21st pull has identical odds to your 1st pull if you haven't reached soft pity.

Truth: Independent Events

Each essence opening represents an independent event with fixed probability. Cumulative probability increases because you're taking multiple independent chances, not because the system remembers failures. Previous expenditure doesn't improve future odds beyond explicit pity mechanics.

Maximizing Your Experience

Emotional Management

Set expectations based on probability. At 50 pulls with 40% success rate, mentally prepare for failure as the more likely outcome. Celebrate A-Tier skins and favorite B-Tier accessories rather than fixating solely on S-Tier.

Tracking Progress

Maintain personal records noting pull count, items received, and remaining budget. This prevents confusion about pity status and helps identify decision points.

Alternative Acquisition

Fragment accumulation offers a secondary path at 12,888 Fragments required. You'd need ~6-7 S-Tier duplicates or 13 A-Tier duplicates—impractical for most players. This primarily benefits long-term players with accumulated fragments from previous seasons.

FAQ

What's the exact drop rate for Mayfly? 0.5% base rate per pull (1-in-200). Increases after 60 pulls through soft pity, adding 0.5-1% per pull until you receive S-Tier or reach 250-pull hard pity.

How much to guarantee Mayfly? 24,000 Inspirations (250 pulls) or ~$350. Median acquisition is 85-95 pulls (8,160-9,120 Inspirations or $65-75).

Does pity carry over between essences? Yes, between all Season 40 essences. Pulls in Essence 1 count toward Essence 2 pity. Counter resets completely at Season 41.

Odds in first 50 pulls? 40% cumulative probability at 4,800 Inspirations (~$40-50). 4 out of 10 players succeed here.

What happens with duplicate S-Tier skins? Duplicates convert to 2,000 Fragments automatically. Save toward other S-Tier skins (12,888 Fragments) or use for A-Tier skins.

When does Essence 2 end? Reports vary—verify through official in-game announcements. Likely runs through December 18, 2025. After the period ends, Mayfly becomes unavailable except via fragment purchase (12,888 Fragments required).