Identity V Season 40 Essence Drop Rates & Pity Guide 2026

Season 40 Nightmare Essence Overview

Launches November 27, 2025 for exactly 20 days. Features:

• S-Tier: Queen Bee Memory Scar (exclusive)
• A-Tier: Prospector Mourning Thought, Novelist Stilled Hours
• B-Tier: Multiple standard items

Pre-launch bonus: November 20-27 login event grants 10 free pulls before official launch.

After the 20-day window, Queen Bee skin only available via fragment shop at 12,888 Fragments.

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Official Drop Rates

S-Tier: 1-2% base rate per pull Cost: 96 Inspirations (single), 960 Inspirations (10-pull)

10-pull offers zero rate advantage—just convenience.

Cumulative Probability Breakdown

• 50 pulls (4,800 Inspirations): 40% chance

• 100 pulls (9,600 Inspirations): 63% chance
• 150 pulls (14,400 Inspirations): 78% chance
• 200 pulls (19,200 Inspirations): 87% chance
• 250 pulls (24,000 Inspirations): 100% guaranteed

A-Tier and B-Tier Rates

• A-Tier: Separate 60-pull pity guarantee (independent from S-Tier)
• B-Tier: Pity at 10-12 pulls depending on item type
• Duplicates: B-Tier = 76-200 Fragments, A-Tier = 1,000 Fragments, S-Tier = 2,000 Fragments

Pity System Mechanics

Hard Pity: 250 Pulls

Absolute guarantee. At exactly 250 pulls without S-Tier, system automatically awards Queen Bee skin. Requires maximum 24,000 Inspirations.

Counter resets to zero after S-Tier acquisition.

Soft Pity: After 60 Pulls

Subtle rate increases activate at 60 pulls. Community data suggests +0.5-1% per pull boost, compressing median acquisition to 85-95 pulls instead of pure probability expectation.

Pity Counter Tracking

In-game interface shows:

• Pulls until next A-Tier guarantee
• Total pulls toward 250 S-Tier guarantee

Counter persists across sessions and devices. Screenshot before/after major pull sessions for personal records.

Important: Pity carries between Season 40 essences but completely resets at Season 41.

Complete Cost Analysis

Per Pull: 96 Inspirations Hard Pity: 24,000 Inspirations (250 pulls) Median Range: 8,160-9,120 Inspirations (85-95 pulls)

Fragment Shop Alternative

Queen Bee available post-essence for 12,888 Fragments. Requires extensive duplicate pulls or months of fragment farming. Most players find direct pulling more efficient.

F2P Monthly Income

Active free players accumulate 3,000-5,000 Inspirations monthly through:

• Daily missions: 50-100 Inspirations/day
• Weekly missions: 200-500 Inspirations
• Logic Path free track: 2,000-3,000 Inspirations/season
• Special events: 1,000-2,000 Inspirations (occasional)

Reality Check: Free resources during essence period = ~62 pulls (10 login bonus + 5,000 monthly). That's only 40% cumulative probability.

To reach median range (85-95 pulls), F2P needs 2-3 months advance saving. For guaranteed 250 pulls: 5-6 months.

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Probability Mathematics

Each pull = independent event. Base 1-2% applies equally to pull 1 and pull 59.

Expected Value: Pure probability suggests 67 pulls average (1 ÷ 0.015), but soft pity shifts practical median to 85-95 pulls.

Distribution: Half of players succeed before 85 pulls, half require 85-250. Long tail of unlucky players pulling 150-250 times.

Why Most Don't Beat Odds

At 50 pulls with 40% cumulative chance, 60% of players still lack S-Tier—that's the majority outcome, not bad luck.

Confirmation bias amplifies early-pull visibility. Players sharing lucky results create false perception of common early acquisition.

Optimal Pull Strategy

Budget-Based Decision Framework

Before pulling:

1. Calculate total available Inspirations
2. Determine maximum acceptable spend
3. Establish firm stopping points based on pity, not sunk cost

Risk-Averse Strategy: Save 24,000 Inspirations before starting. Eliminates variance entirely.

Risk Zones

• Below 50 pulls: High risk, <40% probability—only for players accepting likely failure
• 50-85 pulls: Moderate risk, approaching median
• 85-150 pulls: High probability zone (63-78%), strong commitment territory
• 150-200 pulls: Very high probability (78-87%), approaching point of no return
• 200-250 pulls: Final stretch—stopping wastes significant progress

Early S-Tier: Stop or Continue?

Getting S-Tier before 85 pulls = better-than-median luck. Natural stopping point.

Continuing resets pity to zero, returning to 1-2% base rate for duplicates—inefficient unless specifically targeting A-Tier skins.

A-Tier pity operates independently. If targeting both S-Tier + specific A-Tier, budget must accommodate separate 60-pull cycle.

Common Myths Debunked

Myth: Specific Times Increase Luck

False. Server-side RNG operates independently of time zones, maintenance schedules, or activity patterns. 3 AM pull = identical probability as 3 PM pull.

Myth: 10-Pulls Have Better Rates

False. 10-pull executes ten individual pulls with identical probability. Zero rate bonus, pity acceleration, or guaranteed rarity. Pure convenience feature.

Myth: Previous Pulls Affect Future Rates

False. Each pull = independent event. No memory outside pity counter. Pull 100 has no inherent advantage over pull 10 unless soft pity activated. System doesn't track bad luck beyond explicit pity mechanics.

Advanced Tips

Pull Tracking Spreadsheet

Track:

• Pull number (1-250)
• Date/time
• Item received + rarity
• Inspirations spent
• Cumulative total
• Pulls to next pity
• Emotional state notes

Cumulative column combats sunk cost fallacy by making spending concrete.

When to Cut Losses

Reaching 100-150 pulls without S-Tier and exhausted resources? Decision depends on budget constraints and opportunity cost.

Fragment shop offers guaranteed eventual access (12,888 Fragments). Players with substantial reserves might rationally stop pulling early and use fragments instead.

Long-Term Discipline

Successful F2P requires seasonal planning:

1. Research upcoming essences months ahead
2. Identify must-have skins
3. Skip 2-3 consecutive essences to save for high-priority targets

Pre-Commitment Strategy: Set hard budget limit before viewing essence. Commit to ceiling regardless of outcomes. Removes emotional decision-making.

FAQ

What's the exact S-Tier drop rate? 1-2% base per pull. Soft pity increases activate after 60 pulls. Hard pity guarantees at 250 pulls.

How many pulls guarantee Queen Bee? 250 pulls (24,000 Inspirations) guarantee via hard pity. Median acquisition: 85-95 pulls. 63% succeed by 100 pulls.

Does pity carry between essences? Yes within Season 40 (Essence 1, 2, etc.). Completely resets at Season 41. No cross-season accumulation.

Can F2P get S-Tier realistically? 10 login pulls + ~5,000 monthly Inspirations = 62 total pulls = 40% probability. Possible but requires luck or multi-month advance saving.

What if I get S-Tier early? Pity resets to zero immediately. Subsequent pulls restart at 1-2% base rate. Continued pulling inefficient unless targeting A-Tier.

Is 10-pull better than singles? No. Identical probability. Zero bonuses. Pure convenience.