Identity V S20 Essence Drop Rates & Pity System Guide 2026

Season 40 Nightmare Essence Mechanics

Nightmare Essence launches November 27, 2026 after 08:00 UTC+8 maintenance, running 20 days. Uses Inspirations as pull currency: 96 per single pull, 960 for 10 pulls (no discount).

Featured costumes:

• Queen Bee Memory Scar (S-Tier exclusive)
• Prospector Mourning Thought (A-Tier)
• Novelist Stilled Hours (A-Tier)

Queen Bee available in fragment shop for 12,888 Fragments. For efficient Inspiration acquisition, Identity V top up through buffget provides competitive rates with instant delivery.

Season 40 Timeline

• Logic Path reset: November 27, 2025, 00:00 server time
• Season 40 shop closes: January 7, 2026, 23:59
• Season 40 ends: February 5, 2026 (maintenance)

Critical: Pity carries between Season 40 essences but completely resets at Season 41. Complete pulls before season transition to preserve guaranteed progress.

Drop Rate Breakdown

Base rates:

• S-Tier: 1-2% per pull
• A-Tier: Variable, 60-pull guarantee
• B-Tier: 10-12 pull pity
• C-Tier: Remainder probability

Soft pity activates after 60 pulls, adding 0.5-1% per subsequent pull. Pull 61 has ~1.5-3% S-Tier chance, pull 62 has 2-4%, etc.

Cumulative probability:

• 100 pulls: 63% S-Tier chance
• 150 pulls: 78%
• 200 pulls: 87%
• 250 pulls: 100% guaranteed

Cost by Milestone

• 50 pulls: 4,800 Inspirations (40% chance)
• 100 pulls: 9,600 Inspirations (63% chance)
• 150 pulls: 14,400 Inspirations (78% chance)
• 200 pulls: 19,200 Inspirations (87% chance)
• 250 pulls: 24,000 Inspirations (guaranteed)

The 50-pull threshold carries 60% failure risk—unsuitable for risk-averse players. Budget for 85-95 pull median or secure full 250-pull guarantee.

Pity System Architecture

Pity thresholds:

1. B-Tier: Every 10-12 pulls without B-Tier or higher
2. A-Tier: Exactly 60 pulls without A-Tier or higher
3. S-Tier hard pity: Exactly 250 pulls without S-Tier

A-Tier pity doesn't reset S-Tier counter—you continue accumulating toward 250-pull guarantee regardless of A-Tier drops.

Pity Carryover

Pity persists across all Season 40 essence banners. Pulls on one limited essence contribute to pity on subsequent Season 40 essences.

Complete pity reset at Season 41 is a hard cutoff. Players with 249 accumulated pulls entering Season 41 lose all progress.

Inspiration Sources

Free sources:

• November 20-27 login event: 10 free pulls (960 Inspirations)
• Logic Path rewards: Limited Echoes (not Inspirations)
• Promotional code queenbee1127: 50-150 diamonds/fragments

Logic Path details:

• A-rarity costume at block 600: 1,388 Echoes
• Scribbled Ideas: 25 Logic Points/minute (6,000 weekly cap)
• 4-sided Dice: 100 roll limit per season

Free-to-play ceiling: 15-20 total pulls per season (1,440-1,920 Inspirations)—far below 8,160-9,120 median S-Tier requirement.

For substantial Inspiration quantities, buy Identity V Echoes through buffget for secure transactions and fast delivery.

Duplicate Conversion

Fragment yields:

• B-Tier duplicates: 76-200 Fragments
• A-Tier duplicates: 1,000 Fragments
• S-Tier duplicates: 2,000 Fragments

S-Tier duplicate yields 2,000 Fragments = 15.5% of 12,888 Fragment shop cost. Each duplicate provides fractional progress toward second copy.

Fragment shop acquisition requires:

• 13 A-Tier duplicates (780+ pulls worst-case)
• 65 B-Tier duplicates at 200 Fragments each
• 170 B-Tier duplicates at 76 Fragments each

Fragment shop serves ultra-long-term goals, not practical alternatives to direct pulling.

Logic Path Portrait Rewards

Portrait milestones:

• 80 draws: Novelist Stilled Hours or Prospector Mourning Thought portrait
• 130 draws: Second choice of above portraits
• 180 draws: Queen Bee Memory Scar portrait (exclusive, 17,280 Inspirations)

180-draw threshold sits below 250-pull hard pity, achievable for players budgeting guaranteed S-Tier.

Additional rewards:

• Lawyer Strategize portrait frame: 1,528 steps
• Records cap: 1,900 total (weekly limits: 350/700/1,100)

Pro tip: Enable Block Gifts toggle to skip cosmetic rewards and accelerate toward higher-tier milestones.

Pulling Strategy Optimization

Conservative (250 pulls):

• Budget: 24,000 Inspirations
• Success: 100% guaranteed
• Best for: Zero risk tolerance
• Drawback: Overpays if early drop

Median-Targeted (100 pulls):

• Budget: 9,600 Inspirations
• Success: 63%
• Best for: Moderate risk acceptance
• Drawback: 37% failure rate

Aggressive (50 pulls):

• Budget: 4,800 Inspirations
• Success: 40%
• Best for: Lottery mindset
• Drawback: 60% failure rate

Median-targeted approach offers best risk-reward balance—63% success at 40% of hard pity cost.

Single vs Multi-Pull

Zero discount for 10-pulls (960 = 10 × 96). Use single pulls within 10 pulls of pity to stop immediately upon S-Tier drop. Use 10-pulls for time efficiency when far from milestones.

Probability Myths Debunked

Myth: Pulling at specific times increases rates Reality: Server-side RNG is time-independent. 1-2% base rate applies identically always.

Myth: Account age affects drop rates Reality: All accounts use identical probability tables.

Myth: Previous bad luck improves future odds Reality: Only pity system improves odds. Each pull maintains independent 1-2% base probability.

Myth: Stopping and restarting resets luck Reality: Pity counter persists continuously. Closing game has zero impact.

Soft pity (post-60 pulls) is the only legitimate pattern—transparent and documented.

Resource Management

Priority framework:

1. Secure 10 free pulls (November 20-27 login)
2. Evaluate S-Tier desire vs 8,160-24,000 Inspiration cost
3. Complete daily 4-sided Dice rolls
4. Assess Logic Path costume value (1,388 Echoes)
5. Reserve resources for late-season events

Limited budgets: Prioritize guaranteed Logic Path costume over speculative essence pulls.

Strategic Timing

Early pulling:

• Immediate costume access
• Maximum enjoyment duration
• Showcase during peak activity

Late pulling:

• Complete free resource knowledge
• Informed decision-making
• Potential last-minute promotions

Recommendation: Complete 10 free login pulls immediately, delay major purchases until day 15-17 of 20-day window.

FAQ

What are exact S-Tier drop rates? Base 1-2% per pull, increasing 0.5-1% per pull after 60-pull soft pity. Hard guarantee at 250 pulls (24,000 Inspirations). Median: 85-95 pulls (8,160-9,120 Inspirations).

How does pity carry over? Carries between all Season 40 essences, completely resets at Season 41 (February 5, 2026).

How many free pulls can I get? 10 free pulls from November 20-27 login. Additional 5-10 from Logic Path/events. Total: ~15-20 maximum.

Is fragment shop better than pulling? 12,888 Fragments requires ~13 A-Tier duplicates or 65-170 B-Tier duplicates—more pulling than 85-95 median for direct S-Tier. Viable only for multi-season accumulation.

What happens to pity after Season 40? Complete reset at Season 41 (February 5, 2026). Complete pulls before season end or lose progress.

Single pulls or 10-pulls? No discount for 10-pulls. Single pull near pity thresholds to stop immediately upon S-Tier. 10-pull for time efficiency when far from milestones.